Why did our parents ask us to become doctors or bankers? And why very few of them asked us to become next John Lennon or Michael Jackson? Because the average income of average doctors and bankers are most likely higher than ordinary people. This happens even you are not “so special” doctors or bankers.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes this as Mediocristant vs. Extremistant. In the Mediocristant world, like doctors or bankers, the pie will be divided almost equal because the doctors can not serve the patient in all France and England at the same time. There must be someplace like a tiny little town where doctors can operate monopoly and therefore gain substantial income than average. In an Extremistant world, the winner takes (almost) all. Thousands and millions of singers in the world, one like Justin Bieber or Rihanna, take almost all the pie, while millions of others get only the crumbs.
So, if your children overestimated his chance to be the next rock-star, you can advise him to pay a visit to a graveyard—a graveyard of unknown singers who never sold a single.
What makes this report great? This is a very good report because the researchers uses advanced statistical technique to get insight from 642,000 tax return data.